Withdrawal and the SOFA

Eric Martin makes some important points about the current U.S. debate over the timeline for withdrawing forces from Iraq: everybody who's saying we can't pull out in 16 months, or two years, is ignoring the SOFA--Status of Forces Agreement--that the Bush administration negotiated with the al-Maliki government, which just had quite a strong showing in the recent elections.

Rather than delaying the commencement of withdrawal under the theory that we can, or should, ignore the SOFA, the US should put a downpayment on withdrawal by beginning the pullout now as suggested by Marc Lynch for the following reasons: (1) it would reassure the Iraqi people of our intention to leave Iraq, which would make the SOFA more palatable; (2) it would strengthen Maliki's hand, and the hand of those advocating nationalism/centralism without, in the alternative, empowering the extremism of some of the Sadrist elements; and (3) even if such overtures do not convince the Iraqi people to endorse the SOFA, withdrawal over 12 months will be easier to accomplish if we've already begun to pull out some of our forces.

Martin is fast becoming one of my favorites for his detailed and insightful analyses of Iraqi politics.

Buh?

Goddamn it, you idiots.

Iraq's recent stability has been in large part due to the support of Sunni militias, previously insurgent, who decided to support the government and the effort for peace. Our precious surge would most likely have amounted to nothing without them. Now that the Shi'ite dominated government is feeling confident that their military is capable, and now that the Sunnis are starting to look for some political rewards, the state is arresting members of the Sunni "Awakening" movement.

This is seriously beyond stupid. Doing this just as it looks like American forces are starting to pull back aggravates instability. What's more, many of these guys were formerly allied with Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia--the last thing anyone should want is driving them back to AQM. Breaking promises to the Sunnis is not only in bad faith, it's inflammatory. It's like they're trying to compromise their security and start up civil war again.

"Some people from the government encouraged us to fight against Al Qaeda, but it seems that now that Al Qaeda is finished they don’t want us anymore," said Abu Marouf, who, according to American officials, was a powerful guerrilla leader in the 1920s Revolutionary Brigade west of Baghdad. "So how can you say I am not betrayed?"

Is it possible that they're this stupid, or is there something else going on here?

"Iraq and the U.S. have reached preliminary agreement to withdraw American forces from Iraqi cities by next June, six years into the increasingly unpopular war, Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said Thursday after meeting with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice."

That's not breaking or anything, but I figured it's the kind of thing people would want to know if they missed it.

Gaydar may actually exist, which makes me feel like less of a fraud.

Fascinating article on how stained glass windows also purify air. Medieval goldsmiths were also into nanotech, apparently. [H/t Shakesville]


In closing, I finally read Watchmen and it was incredible.